Economically:

  • Medvedev said that Russia will supply food and crops to only friendly countries, both in rubles and their national currency. He says that these food exports are a “quiet but formidable weapon”.
  • According to the Central Bank of Russia, for the first time since February 24th, the Russian banking system is in structural liquidity surplus.
  • Last year, Brazil’s central bank quadrupled it foreign reserves in yuan. China represents 28% of Brazil’s international trade, more than double that of the US, its next largest trade partner.
  • The Eurozone’s inflation was 7.5% in March, an all-time high.
  • 300,000 Ukrainian refugees arrive in Germany.
  • Russia “will not ask Europe to lift sanctions”.
  • Ukraine introduces a law that increases taxes by 1.5x for international businesses in Ukraine that are also staying in Russia.
  • Ukraine nationalizes the property of Russians and its own citizens that support the Russian special operation.
  • For those who don’t understand what’s going on with the Russian gas payments, in essence, it works like this: Customers (businesses, countries, whatever) open an account with Gazprombank in Russia. Payments are made in foreign currency - dollars or euros - and converted into rubles according to the current exchange rate, and transferred to different Gazprom accounts. This ensures that Gazprom, in Russia, would be paid, because otherwise, European countries could pay for Russian gas in Gazprom accounts in Europe, and then instantly freeze them until they were unblocked - which would probably only come with the end of Russia’s invasion. This also ensures that Europe cannot sanction Gazprombank if they want to keep getting natural gas. Europe will either have to choose this, or get much more expensive natural gas from the US (and there’s not even enough natural gas transport capacity right now anyway) which would fuck over their economies. In fact, their economies are already being fucked over, but it would get even worse.
  • Danish energy group Orsted has “no intention” of paying for Russian gas in rubles.
  • Moon of Alabama explains that without heavy Russian crude oil, the US has no efficient way of creating diesel and heating oil, which is leading to this global diesel crisis. Diesel is used for freight transport and industrial transport, and so is very closely linked to GDP. Europe imports half its diesel from Russia, with the other half coming from the Middle East. Biden’s decision to release 1 million barrels of crude oil per day will likely not make a large difference in the diesel market, which is the larger driver of inflation than gasoline.
  • The London Metal Exchange suspends deliveries of Russian copper, lead, aluminium and aluminium alloys to warehouses amid a import duty hike.

Russian Gas:

  • Notifications about the new procedure for paying for gas in rubles are sent to counterparties today, says Gazprom.
  • Slovakia says it’s fine with buying gas from Russia in rubles.
  • The CEO of Germany’s largest chemical company, BASF, says that he strongly opposed the embargo on Russian energy supplies saying that it would lead Germany to the most serious crisis since the end of WW2.
  • Hungary’s PM, Orban, says that Europe will not be able to replace Russian gas with expensive American gas. “It is not necessary to count on the volume of LNG transportation across the ocean, so there is no alternative to gas supplies to Hungary.” … “It’s not about putting on a sweater in the evening and reducing the heating a little, but about the fact that if there are no energy sources from Russia, then there will be no energy in Hungary at all.”
  • Japan rejects Russia’s demand to pay for gas in rubles.
  • Gazprom has terminated its participation in the Germany company GAZPROM Germania GmbH and all its assets. Earlier, the media wrote about possible nationalization of Gazprom and Rosneft subsidiaries in Germany.
  • Russia starts pumping more gas to China than previously planned.
  • Von Der Leyen apparently left on hold for 6 hours trying to open Russian bank account so EU can make ruble transfers. I feel like this is an April Fool’s joke but I don’t fucking know anymore tbh. If anything here is like “yeah, that’s actually an April Fools joke, why is it here?” then I have been owned; let me know and I’ll edit the post.

Diplomatically and Politically:

Ukraine/Russia:

  • Lavrov says that there’s been “much more understanding” of the situation with Crimea and Donbass from Ukraine.
  • The President of South Ossetia is going to Donbass.
  • The Investigative Committee of Russia charged 22 Ukrainian military officials with genocide of the Russian-speaking population of Ukraine.
  • Russian Foreign Ministry says that political dialogue with NATO is currently “impossible” and “makes no sense”.
  • The air strike of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the oil depot in Belgorod “does not create comfortable conditions for the continuation of negotiations" says Peskov.
  • Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service: “Ukraine has informed Britain that it does not intend to comply with the Geneva Convention on the Treatment of Russian Prisoners of War. … The West is not only aware of Kiev’s gross violations of international humanitarian law, but is also trying to help it avoid responsibility.”
  • The film studios of CIS countries (which includes Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Ukraine - I assume Ukraine isn’t joining lmao) are uniting in an alliance.
  • China urges Psaki and Nuland to resolve the debate as to whether the US is developing biological weapons in Ukraine. Psaki says there aren’t biological labs in Ukraine, while Nuland says there are, and that the US is co-operating with Ukraine to prevent materials from falling into the hands of the Russian Army.
  • Russian universities are being instructed to transfer their educational content from Youtube to Rutube and Vkontakte by April 4th.
  • Conditions in Mariupol made it “impossible” for the Red Cross to proceed with their evacuation.
  • Ukrainian parliament approves bill declaring Russia a “terrorist state” and that Ukraine will consider “genocide of the Ukrainian people” as one of Moscow’s goals. I’m not sure if it’s been passed into law yet, but I don’t see why it wouldn’t.
  • According to Al Jazeera, Russia has been recruiting Syrians, and Libyans, and people in other countries to fight in Ukraine, with “thousands” expressing an interest in signing up. Putin said in March that he would approve up to 16,000 fighters from the Middle East to deploy in Donbass.
  • Lavrov praises India as a “friend”, saying that it isn’t taking a one-sided view on the war.
  • Italy freezes 900 million euros of Russian assets under sanctions.
  • Cui Hongjian, director of the Department of European Studies at the China Institute of International Studies, has said: “The EU is now kidnapped by the US on security, but that does not conform to the strategic independence EU has pursued … to avoid being caught in hot water again, the EU must take control of its own destiny. And developing ties with China provides the EU an opportunity to develop in a more balanced and comprehensive way in the long term.”

Elsewhere:

  • The Chinese Foreign Ministry said that NATO should have been dissolved after the collapse of the USSR. It also said that the UN should study and give a professional assessment of the material provided by Russia about the US biological laboratories in Ukraine.
  • EU’s high representative of foreign policy, Josep Borrell, says that he “regrets” the countersanctions on EU leaders by Russia.
  • Putin will talk to “several” global leaders today, though only Erdogan and Lukashenko have been named as one of them.
  • Georgia says that the recall of Ukraine’s diplomat in Georgia due to its “refusal to help Ukraine” is an “insult to the authorities, but also a significant part of society”
  • The US says that it will not recognize Russia’s attempts to divide Georgia’s territory (and therefore, South Ossetia joining Russia).
  • “A new reality is taking shape: the unipolar world is irretrievably receding into the past and a multipolar world is being born. Nobody on Earth will be considered a second-rate player. All nations are equal and sovereign.” - Lavrov
  • US deputy NSA went to India the day before Sergei Lavrov’s arrival to tell them to please not “create mechanisms that prop up the rouble and that attempt to undermine the dollar-based financial system”, saying that the US is “ready to help India diversify both energy supplies and military hardware” by supplying India with American energy and weapons.
  • Pakistan’s Prime Minister apparently has proof of foreign funding to overthrow him in a regime change.
  • Spanish government calls for an abrupt end to Spain’s decades-long position of neutrality over the Western Sahara, by calling for Moroccan sovereignty over the disputed region. This risks ending Spain’s commercial relations with its biggest provider of natural gas, Algeria. Algeria is also Italy’s second largest supplier of gas after Russia.

Militarily:

Russia:

  • Ukraine hits a fuel depot in Belgorod (city), which is relatively close to Kharkov in Ukraine. Two Ukrainian helicopters came in at low altitude and hit the depot. While it is very difficult to detect helicopters at very low altitudes, it is still embarrassing for Russia - but far from a catastrophe. Some cope on Russian Telegram but not as much as I thought there would be.
  • A village in Belgorod (oblast) was also hit - this time, a printing house.
  • An object - perhaps a drone - was shot down over Belgorod.
  • It is believed by western intelligence that Phase 2 will begin in a week, with the simultaneous encirclement of Mykolaiv and assault on the eastern front.
  • Ukrainian forces were filmed in Borodyanka, northwest of Kiev, where Russian forces once were. Therefore, as no fighting was reported, it does seem that some of the Russian forces around Kiev are retreating and regrouping to be sent to Donbass. Ukraine is also reporting the recapture of several villages near Kiev, again, without much if any fighting.
  • Russian aviation reportedly hit 40 military facilities in one day - and the cruise missile “Onyx” destroyed the headquarters of the Ukrainian troops near Shakhterskoye - which is… possibly Shakhtarske, between Dnipro and Donetsk? Ukraine vs Russian place names are, once again, confusing me
  • The destroyed oil depot in Belgorod is for civilian use and will not affect Russian troop movements.
  • Apparently, the Ukrainian Armed Forces aren’t taking credit for the Belgorod attack? “Ukraine’s top security official has denied accusations by Russia that Ukraine was behind an attack on an oil depot in the Russian city of Belgorod.” Not sure what’s going on there, not sure who else it could have been?

Ukraine in general:

  • Russia continues to post footage of captured/destroyed Ukrainian equipment.
  • A surrendered Ukrainian soldier says that Azov shot not only civilians in Mariupol, but also military personnel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
  • Kyiv mayor says that “huge” battles are being fought to the north and east of Ukraine’s capital.
  • At the same time, Al Jazeera reports that Moscow does appear to be withdrawing units around Kyiv and Chernihiv.

Eastern Ukraine:

  • Ukraine continues shelling Donetsk city - this time, a school (but with no casualties - not sure if anybody was inside)
  • Ukraine confirms that Izyum is under Russian control and that Russian troops are pushing in the direction of Slovyansk. This was announced by the Russians several days ago.

Southern Ukraine:

  • According to Russia, there were three helicopters that flew into Mariupol. They were allowed to enter the city, and then the plan was to shoot them down when they left. One helicopter was hit by a Stinger (two survivors); one was hit and fell into the sea (no survivors); and one, after seeing what happened to the previous two, returned back to the city.
  • The civilians of Mariupol wished Azov to feel all the suffering that the neo-Nazis have inflicted on them. “Damn Poroshenko, Zelensky, and all their henchmen” says one resident.

Dipshittery and Cope:

  • Fukuyama says that “We could be facing the end of “the end of history””
  • Antony Blinken: “Today we announced nearly $204 million in additional humanitarian assistance for the Afghan people. We’ve provided more than $720 million since August 2021 and remain committed to the Afghan people.” Reminder that the US stole 7 billion dollars from Afghanistan.